Human-Environmental Systems Interaction: Social-Ecological Systems Analysis and Land Use Modelling of Climate Change Impacts (WS 2024/2025)

Social-ecological systems (SESs) are nested, multi-level interlinked systems of humans and nature that provide essential resources to society such as food, fiber, energy and water. Neo-classical economic theory suggests that these systems can only be maintained through privatization or government regulation. The work of Elinor Ostrom, however, has shown that under certain circumstances these systems are maintained without government intervention through self-organized cooperation of local communities. Regarding the specific circumstances under which self-organization occurs, however, no simple general answer can be given as it depends on many characteristics of the involved actors, resources, technology and institutions.

Part 1 of the module introduces to the in–depth analysis of coupled SESs with a specific focus on the SES framework developed by Elinor Ostrom. We introduce this framework and compare it to complimentary approaches for studying SESs such as resilience thinking and complex systems as well as “classical” approaches from ecology and resource economics, which focus on particular aspects of SESs. We also explore various modelling techniques such as formalization, ontologies, system dynamics and agent-based modelling that may be applied for understanding the structure and dynamics of SESs. The different conceptualizations and modeling techniques will be introduced in lectures and then applied by students in practical exercises using a set of prototypical cases.

Part 2 of the module will cover human land use for agriculture, forestry and other purposes, which is an important example of an SES and provides a crucial link between social and environmental processes. Quantitative computer modelling can help to understand land use change processes and related trade-offs between competing societal goals. Part 2 provides an overview of land use modelling approaches at different spatial scales. A focus will be on the link between economic processes and biophysical processes. It will be shown how these models can be applied to analyse climate impacts on agriculture as well as options for climate change adaptation and mitigation. Important aspects to discuss are technological change, land expansion, water scarcity, international trade, and bioenergy demand and supply. The conceptual presentation in the lecture will be complemented by practical exercises in mathematical programming with GAMS.